More bad news yet to come
To those who follow stock markets and trying to stay optimistic:
* Consumer confidence slightly stronger than expected -
This doesn't matter at all. Home purchases are only *slightly* increasing. Cyclical is catching up. Retail the same. In a broad perspective, this doesn't help revive the big economic slump we are already in.
* "Bear Market Still far from bottom" -
David Tice, chief Portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc., talked with Bloomberg's Carol Massor yesterday about the outlook of the stock market. His view is bearish atleast upto mid 2010. The most alarming statement of his is that "We think we can get to 400 on the S&P, which is 55, 60 percent decline [from where we are now]". That is just pretty shocking.
* More bailouts -
Liaquat Ahamed, hedge-fund advisor and historian, says more bailouts are coming and this time Geithner won't be able to ask for taxpayers' money. Debt holders may try to safeguard these bailouts. Read this article for further details on BBG's interview with him.
I still believe our tough times are not over yet. What we see in the markets are just bear market rallies which would not sustain for long. The drop will be bigger everytime we have such a rally. Other factors such as the upcoming hurricane season, outbreaks like swine flu, Israel's actions against Iran, etc. could bring down investor confidence unneccessarily. These are more bad news in our agenda for this year.
* Consumer confidence slightly stronger than expected -
This doesn't matter at all. Home purchases are only *slightly* increasing. Cyclical is catching up. Retail the same. In a broad perspective, this doesn't help revive the big economic slump we are already in.
* "Bear Market Still far from bottom" -
David Tice, chief Portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc., talked with Bloomberg's Carol Massor yesterday about the outlook of the stock market. His view is bearish atleast upto mid 2010. The most alarming statement of his is that "We think we can get to 400 on the S&P, which is 55, 60 percent decline [from where we are now]". That is just pretty shocking.
* More bailouts -
Liaquat Ahamed, hedge-fund advisor and historian, says more bailouts are coming and this time Geithner won't be able to ask for taxpayers' money. Debt holders may try to safeguard these bailouts. Read this article for further details on BBG's interview with him.
I still believe our tough times are not over yet. What we see in the markets are just bear market rallies which would not sustain for long. The drop will be bigger everytime we have such a rally. Other factors such as the upcoming hurricane season, outbreaks like swine flu, Israel's actions against Iran, etc. could bring down investor confidence unneccessarily. These are more bad news in our agenda for this year.
Save, save, save is all one can think about...
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